With Free Agency approaching, I am struck at how many big name Free Agent Wide Receivers are going to be available. The news today of Randy Moss’ desired comeback and Terrell Owens signing with an Indoor Football Team to demonstrate his capabilities has only reinforced my considerable interest for this year’s free agency. Thankfully my unofficial holiday will not be delayed by the accursed Lockout! So, I thought as an introduction to the free agency period, I would go ahead and work through a list of the higher profile Free Agent Wide Receivers that will be available and speculate on their potential future destinations.
Vincent Jackson
2011 Team: San Diego Chargers
Potential 2012 Team: San Diego, Chicago, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay
Vincent Jackson is probably the most well rounded wide receiver in this free agency class, but he does come with baggage. His past DUI transgressions ensure that if he lapses, Jackson will endure a serious suspension. That being said, he possesses the ideal size and speed of a true #1 wide receiver. Hence, if San Diego fails to resign Jackson (Chargers GM AJ Smith said he was open to bringing Jackson back, but has made few moves to that effect) to a long term deal before free agency opens look for Wide receiver needy teams with money to burn like Chicago, Jacksonville, and Tampa Bay to get into a bidding war of Mr. Jackson’s services. Wildcard: Washington, pending the Peyton Manning situation which would dominate Washington’s cap room, the Redskins could opt to bring in Jackson to become their future QB’s go to guy.
Wes Welker
2011 Team: New England Patriots
Potential 2012 Team: New England
It goes without saying that despite a devastating Super Bowl drop, the Pats will bring back the man who moves their offense. However, Wes Welker and Tom Brady have only connected for 10 completions over 20 yards, which although stunning makes a great deal of sense given New England’s offense. With Josh McDaniels returning look for the Pats to bring in a true deep threat to compliment Welker and open up the short game immeasurably, but Welker will most definitely be brought back.Reggie Wayne
2011 Team: Indianapolis Colts
Potential 2012 Team: Wherever Peyton Manning goes
It is no secret that the Colts are done with Reggie Wayne. Spoiled by having Peyton Manning as his QB all of his career, Wayne did not put forth the effort that being a #1 WR demands when second and third string QBs are under center. On a brighter note, Wayne ended the season with 16 Receptions for 179 YDs and a TD in the Colts’ final two games. Wayne can still play and turned it on when it became evident he was auditioning for his 2012 team. With the wealth of WR talent in free agency Wayne will be able to sit and wait for this Peyton Manning situation to resolve itself and I am almost positive that Wayne will follow the QB who has helped him become a dominant wide receiver. Wildcard: Houston, The Texans need a compliment to Andre Johnson and Reggie Wayne would help this offense move…not that it needs help with Foster in the backfield.
Desean Jackson
2011 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Potential 2012 Team: Philadelphia, Cleveland, San Francisco
Desean Jackson is likely to receive Philly’s franchise tag, but given the effort, or lack thereof, he demonstrated after failing to get a long term deal, the Eagles may opt to trade the dynamic deep threat. If that happens, Cleveland with its ties to Philadelphia through Shurmur, obvious wide receiver needs, and a copious amount of picks could feasibly make a move. San Fran could also be in the mix as they also have wide receiver issues along with a glaring lack of returner depth….too soon?Wildcard: Jacksonville, the new regime is going to try anything they can to both build up Blaine Gabbert and increase buzz about the team itself. The Jaguars are going to make a media splash move and this could very well be that move.
Dwayne Bowe
2011 Team: Kansas City Chiefs
Potential 2012 Team: Kansas City, like every other NFL team
Resigning Dwayne Bowe has to be priority #1 for the Chiefs. The one offensive bright spot on an injury beleaguered team has played like a true #1 WR and is at his peak. Bowe is a tall-deep threat, great at run blocking, who (minus one play in Pittsburgh) puts forth solid effort and entertains with mindboggling circus catches. Bowe makes any QB and any offense better. If KC lets him hit the open market, expect a mega deal from any of the WR needy teams. Seriously Kansas City, do not let Dwayne Bowe go. Wildcard: Pittsburgh, any team would be better with Dwayne Bowe making the wildcard the team wouldn’t sign him if he hit free agency hence cap beleaguered Pittsburgh.
Marques Colston
2011 Team: New Orleans
2012 Team: New Orleans, Washington, Chicago
In any other offseason Colston going back to the Saints would be a no brainer and by all intents and purposes it should be. However, Drew Brees is also a free agent. The Saints are going to try to lockdown Brees to a long term deal before the franchise tag ability expires so that they can then use said tag on Colston. However, if no deal with Brees is done the Saints would be forced to use the tag on their All-Pro QB and Colston could field offers from other teams. Colston’s size and physicality would be ideal fits for teams like Washington and Chicago that figure to rely on the run and play action game in the upcoming season. Wildcard: Carolina/Tampa Bay, although a pretty controversial move by Colston to go within the division both of these rivals would welcome Colston’s play to benefit their young QBs
Stevie Johnson
2011 Team: Buffalo Bills
Potential 2012 Team: Buffalo, Chicago, Jacksonville
Johnson’s touchdown celebration in week 17 was a bit uncalled for, at least in this no fun NFL of today, but Head Coach Chan Gailey’s decision to pull his best offensive weapon in a division game against New England as a sizable lead slowly dwindled was far worse. Not only did Buffalo lose in week 17, but that failure of a power move succeeded to anger the Buffalo fan base and raise Johnson’s “Home Town Discount.” If I were Johnson, I would add a million to my price just for that maneuver. If Buffalo succeeds at failing by letting Johnson (their first wide receiver to have back to back seasons with 1,000 yards receiving) walk look for the Bears and Jaguars to pounce. Wildcard: New England/Jets, The Patriots/Jets love picking off disgruntled division rival talent, just ask Miami (Wes Welker/Jason Taylor).
Brandon Llyod
2011 Team: Denver/St. Louis
2012 Team: New England, St. Louis
Lloyd has expressed his willingness to follow McDaniels, the coach who has now brought Lloyd out of two slumps into relevance as a low end #1 wide receiver. I fully expect Lloyd to take a discount to remain statistically impactful and the opportunity to get near a Super Bowl bid. Wildcard: St. Louis, It seems odd to count the team he played for a wildcard, but Jeff Fisher, while in Tennessee, had a long history of hating the wide receiver position. The only aggressive move wide receiver wise the Titans ever made was signing David Givens from New England (A friend of mine is slapping his forehead in exasperation). Nonetheless, Lloyd has expressed willingness to work with Fisher and this could actually happen.
Mike Wallace
2011 Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
Potential 2012 Team: Pittsburgh
The Steelers are up and over the cap wall, but have been trying to free up money, presumably to sign the deep threat Wallace to a long term deal. Much like Welker and Bowe, the most likely scenario is Wallace returning to the Black and Gold.Wildcard: Baltimore/New England/Cincinnati, Say the Steelers are confident in Antonio Brown and apply the Restricted Free Agency Tender to Wallace to get a 1st round pick from some team. The Steelers then could use their cap to get one of these wideouts in free agency that matches Haley's system more than Mike Wallace and address a few other key positions. I'll write more on that later.
Randy Moss
2011 Team: My Fantasy team briefly
Potential 2012 Team: I’ll write on that in a separate piece.
Terrell Owens
2011 Team: My Fantasy team briefly
Potential 2012 Team: ????
Owens is also an interesting case and deserves his own article. I’ll get on that after the Moss piece as Owens will likely be a free agent for a while.Mario Manningham
2011 Team: New York Giants
2012 Team: New York Giants, Jets, San Fran, Tampa Bay
Manningham’s clutch catch in the Super Bowl will warrant him some fashion of pay raise, but given Nicks/Cruz I do not think that raise will come with the Giants. The prospects for Manningham’s return seem even scanter with the possibility of bringing Steve Smith back into the fold. The Jets stand out as a team with wide receiver needs that could do with an under the radar signing like Manningham. San Fran is also in the market for some deep threat wide receiver talent. Tampa Bay figures to be an aggressive player this year so look for them to take a look into Manningham as well. Wildcard: St. Louis, Fisher does not make many wide receiver moves, but signing a team’s third wide receiver runs in step with his SOP.
Laurent Robinson
2011 Team: Dallas Cowboys
2012 Team: Dallas, San Diego, St. Louis
Dallas may be hard pressed to bring back their breakout third wide receiver as they have Austin/Bryant on roster. His rapport with Tony Romo was solid though (to the chagrin of my fantasy season) so bringing Robinson into the fold is a possibility. That being said, there were some in San Diego who did not like releasing Robinson in September 2011 and, if Vincent Jackson walks, the Chargers could be a team open to the idea of plucking this talented WR. St. Louis could be an interested player as well because in addition to my Jeff Fisher 3rd WR Theory, Robinson had played well for the Rams before injuries took their toll.Wildcard: Tennessee, Kenny Britt is recovering nicely, but adding someone like Robinson would give hopeful starting QB Jake Locker a nice set of targets in Britt, Robinson, Washington and Hawkins.
Braylon Edwards
2011 Team: San Francisco
Potential 2012 Team: New York Jets
Edwards bombed out in San Fran due to injuries, but he was only there because the Jets overestimated his market. With Edwards market value at an all-time low, look for the Jets to pull the trigger (sorry Plax) and replace Burress with the man he replaced. Wildcard: Tough to place a market for a guy who got waived by WR needy 49ers and traded away by the always desperate Browns. However, I could see some team taking a shot at Edwards. If Edwards wants a bunch of Steelers jerseys with his name on them and discount cards to local eateries (not a reflection on the value of his talent, but rather how little money we have) I would certainly welcome Edwards onto the Black & Gold. Maybe even a desperate Cleveland could give him a try…I wonder if some Cleveland fans haven’t burned his jersey…
Plaxico Burress
2011 Team: New York Jets
Potential 2012 Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Burress rebounded fairly nicely from his court ordered hiatus, posting 8 touchdowns and over 600 yards with a semi-competent QB in Mark Sanchez. From what I have heard, Burress wants to go to Philly and the feeling is mutual after the Eagles experienced difficulties in their red zone offense, a problem the 6 foot 5 wideout would resolve fairly quickly.Wildcard: Pittsburgh, we have NO MONEY. We may be letting Hines Ward go to get money to sign Mike Wallace. That being said if the money is right…. i.e. very little, then the Steelers would certainly be open to brining Plaxico back home, especially since Todd Haley’s new offense is “short” of the tall wide receivers he is used to working with.
Pierre Garcon
2011 Team: Indianapolis Colts
Potential 2012 Team: Indianapolis
Despite Indy’s seeming preference to blow the franchise up and return to 1998 with Luck, I think they will resign Garcon. He put in the effort that should have been Wayne’s to put in and will not break the bank. Look for Garcon to stay right where he is.Wildcard: Buffalo, potential replacement for Stevie Johnson and a last name sure to win over some of that desirable French Canadian market.
Robert Meachem
2011 Team: New Orleans Saints
Potential 2012 Team: New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Fran
Meachem could likely be headed elsewhere especially if the Saints do resign Colston. If Meachem does hit free agency, Tampa Bay and San Fran could certainly make use of the somewhat underutilized Meachem.Wildcard: Carolina, Meachem could be the cheap way to stick it to the Saints and give Newton a reliable target.
Deion Branch
2011 Team: New England Patriots
Potential 2012 Team: New England
Branch is getting up there, but Tom Brady likes having him around. If Branch is willing to take a sizable hometown discount I could see him staying on board, especially considering they will likely unload Chad Ochocinco soon enough. Wildcard: Retirement, it would seem a bit early for Branch, but given the wealth of wide receiver talent available it is tough to find a market for the veteran outside of New England.
That concludes my analysis of what should be an interesting market at the wide receiver position. My next piece is mostly written already so I expect to publish it next Friday, if not sooner. Until then, thank you for reading and enjoy the Scouting Combine.
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