The Bush Anomaly

In 2006, most mock drafters had the Texans selecting Reggie Bush with the 1^st overall pick. I myself made that pick. However, low and behold, the night before the draft the Texans signed Mario Williams. Thus every mock draft was either ruined or had to be altered considerably. The Texans had considerable pressure on them to draft Reggie Bush, but they refused and picked Mario Williams, who has worked out very well for the Texans ever since. As I study the Detroit Lions this off-season, I see a lot of similarities in their situations.

The Lions just came off of the worst year any NFL team has ever had. Most of the time when a team does as bad as the Lions did the offense gets the brunt of the blame. The Lions offense wasn’t spectacular and rightly does deserve some of the blame. Kitna went down early in the season and none of the other QB’s seemed to know what was going on. They even brought Daunte Culpepper on board midseason and started him with what had to have been a playbook smaller than Techmo Super Bowl’s. However, looking at the Lions’ roster I see a lot of promise on the offense. Culpepper had a 4 to 6 touchdown to interceptions ratio, one rushing touchdown, and one lost fumble. However, the defenses he played against, without any practice, were Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Carolina, Tennessee, and Minnesota. Culpepper did admirably against the premier defenses. With former Minnesota offensive coordinator Scott Linehan working with the Lions and the “Superfreak” Calvin Johnson, Culpepper could see a revival of his career. The Lions have Culpepper, two young QB’s who could pan out for the Detroit, a strong receiver corps, and a decent running back in Kevin Smith. The offense seems to be on the right path.

The Lions have a new GM and Coach. I could definitely see them taking Matt Stafford and starting a new era. However, the offense is not what lost Detroit 16 games. Detroit’s defense was dead last against the run, in points allowed, and total yardage per game. Detroit needs a defense before it can ever hope to have a chance at winning again. If you don’t believe the Lions have a commitment to defense, why would they have hired Titans D-Coordinator Jim Schwartz as the Head Coach? The Lions would do themselves a great deal of good if they drafted defensive early.

So, what do the Lions do? It’s anybody’s guess at this point. The Lions need to turn things around if they ever hope to be a winning team. Does that mean taking the top rated offensive player in the draft class? Or does that mean they need to revamp their atrocious defense? The same questions were asked about the Texans in 2006. Just as the Texans were under a great deal of pressure to take Reggie Bush, the Lions will see a lot of pressure to select Matt Stafford. However, I think with the steps the Lions have taken via their new coaching staff and Culpepper, they have taken themselves out of the Matthew Stafford race. If that is the case then I believe the Bush Anomaly will go into effect.

When the Texans resisted pressure and selected Mario Williams that provided the Saints with an opportunity they did not take into consideration. It was assumed since the 2005 regular season game in which the Saints beat the Texans that the 1^st overall pick would be the dynamic Reggie Bush. With him now an option the Saints were left with little choice but to take the USC running back. It seemed the perfect steal for a Saints team in as much a need of repair as that Texans team. I think that if the Lions do not pick Stafford, the Rams will be forced to take a strong look at the Georgia QB and at Marc Bulger. The Rams will possibly receive a first round pick for trading Torry Holt and will have the 34^th overall pick, so taking a QB with the 2^nd overall, a QB that should have been taken by the NFL’s worst team, would not be a bad idea at all. This year’s draft could see a return of The Bush Anomaly: A highly touted offensive player, two teams in need of major revamping and strong defensive talent in the top 5. It would not surprise me at all if the Lions did not select Matt Stafford with the 1^st overall pick and if they don’t I think it will force the Rams to take a long look at Matthew Stafford and perhaps put the Bush Anomaly into effect.

Why the 49ers Shouldn't Draft Mark Sanchez

Many mock drafts have Mark Sanchez and Matthew Stafford going to Detroit and Kansas City. However, if one of them escapes (generally Sanchez) those people have the 49ers taking the young USC QB. However, I don’t think that the 49ers should draft Sanchez. There are logic concerns, long-term considerations, and many other reasons I have for making such a statement. In this article I will analyze the QB situation of the 49ers in an effort to demonstrate why they don’t need the young USC QB.

When you have a top ten pick it is best to look at an area of great need. It is not hard to admit that the 49ers do not have the most dynamic passing game. However, the 49ers were 13^th in passing yardage. A lot of that could be attributed to Mike Martz’s pass heavy system. However, regardless of Martz’s departure the 49ers already have two project QB’s already on roster. Shaun Hill showed some promise despite an abysmal running game. A reason the 49ers did not do as well as possible was because Hill got injured and JT O Sullivan took over. The 49ers also have 1^st overall pick Alex Smith on roster. Smith has been hurt for a year and a half now, but that much time off should have helped him with the mental aspects of the game. The ownership and Smith have expressed interest in keeping the Utah QB on roster. If this is the case I think the 49ers should not draft Sanchez or any other QB with the 10^th overall. The 49ers have had problems developing QB’s and bringing in another young QB who would take time away from the other QB’s which would be disastrous and in the long run hurt the 49ers considerably.

My second argument is that the 49ers should not expend a top ten pick on a QB so soon after they spent a #1 overall pick on a QB just a few years ago. In 2005 the 49ers drafted Alex Smith #1 overall. When one has a pick that high, you have to make a decision that will help you’re team the most. Smith has yet to do that. Imagine what the 49ers would be like with Demarcus Ware, Braylon Edwards, or Shawne Merriman all of whom were taken after Smith. Drafting another QB would successfully ignore another position need and the 49ers have many of those. It is irresponsible to spend another top ten pick on a QB and risk the entire team’s success when the QB’s on roster could be developed further. If the 49ers draft Sanchez and he doesn’t pan out, where does that leave the 49ers in a few years?

What if Sanchez is great for the 49ers? I don’t think he will be. Sanchez has mobility and quite the arm that much is for sure. Sanchez threw only 10 interceptions to 34 touchdowns, some impressive numbers. However, he only got sacked 16 times. That is an incredible offensive line. The 49ers allowed 55 sacks last year. Sanchez made phenomenal plays but in large part due to an amazing offensive line. It would be interesting to see Sanchez attempt to carry an offense, but it would be wiser to put Sanchez in a situation familiar to him. The 49ers are no such system. Sanchez would be a great fit for the Jets, Vikings, or Buccaneers. These teams have great o-lines and good running games two elements necessary for a young QB.

What should the 49ers do then? I say they stick with what they have this year. A healthy Shaun Hill backed up by a wiser Alex Smith is a solid QB situation. The coaching staff can work on developing those two and make decent enough QB’s out of them. With the tenth overall pick I would go defensive. Perhaps drafting a pass-rusher would go a long way towards making the 49ers a stronger team. However, I do not think that the 49ers should draft Sanchez. The 49ers already have two project QB’s on roster. It would serve the team better in the long run to address a different need. So, it is my opinion that the 49ers should not draft Mark Sanchez.